FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Steady as Jobs Data Eyed

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was steady at around 4.38% on Monday after last week’s sharp decline, as investors awaited the latest US monthly jobs report for fresh insight into labor market conditions and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s determination to bring inflation under control, reinforcing the hawkish message of his debut earlier this month, which had already led markets to scale back expectations for US rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in three Fed rate hikes in 2024, with the probability of the first increase in September exceeding 60%. At the same time, investors continued to track developments in the Middle East after oil prices rose on renewed clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, even as both sides agreed to suspend further attacks ahead of peace talks scheduled to resume this week in Doha, Qatar.