Cocoa futures eased toward $4,900 per tonne, retreating from a five-month high of nearly $5,250 per tonne reached on June 25, as improved supply flows helped offset concerns about the forthcoming West African crop. Recent data showed that cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, totaled 1.91 million metric tons as of June 28 since the season began on October 1, an increase of 18.4% from the same period a year earlier. In addition, Nigerian cocoa exports rose 28% year-on-year in May to 18,034 metric tons.
Even with a projected surplus in 2026, cocoa prices remain volatile and highly sensitive to weather conditions. Heavy rainfall in recent weeks in both Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted harvesting and logistics, flooding roads and restricting access to farms and ports. With June precipitation already close to typical monthly levels, the excessive moisture is heightening the risk of brown rot disease, which could ultimately reduce yields. At the same time, the reemergence of El Niño has once again placed cocoa among the agricultural commodities most exposed to climate-related shocks.
