Aluminum futures in the UK fell below $3,100 per tonne, their lowest level since February, pressured by a stronger US dollar and expectations of renewed metal shipments from the Middle East. This decline extended June’s 16% slide—the sharpest monthly drop since 2008—which followed a strong rally from March to May driven by supply disruptions.
Anticipation of an imminent US interest rate hike has strengthened the dollar, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies. At the same time, the resumption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz after a US–Iran agreement has raised the likelihood of increased shipments from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for nearly one-tenth of global aluminum production.
Further downward pressure has come from rising output in China, the world’s largest producer, alongside higher production from smelters in Indonesia.
