The US economy is projected to have added 110K jobs in June 2026, the smallest monthly increase in four months, following three straight months of stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll gains. In May, payrolls grew by 172K, though some analysts believe World Cup–related hiring may have provided a temporary lift to employment.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month. At the same time, average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month-over-month, in line with May’s increase, while annual wage growth is seen ticking up to 3.5% from 3.4%.
Despite the anticipated moderation in payroll growth, the June employment report is still likely to signal a resilient labour market.
