Aluminum futures in the UK rose to $3,120 per tonne, extending their recovery from a more than four-month low amid falling inventories and mounting expectations of a supply shortage. Recent drawdowns from LME warehouses have pushed total stocks below 300,000 tonnes for the first time since 2022, underscoring tight near-term availability.
While the resumption of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz and announcements of smelter restarts in the Middle East had initially boosted expectations of increased supply, some analysts caution that additional output from the region may take longer than anticipated to reach the market. At the same time, the aluminum market is projected to run a deficit this year, with Macquarie forecasting a shortfall of roughly 930,000 tonnes.
Prices also drew support from a weaker US dollar following a soft US jobs report, which dampened expectations of an imminent interest rate hike and enhanced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities.
