The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered near a one-month high of about 4.55% on Wednesday, after a sharp rise in the previous session. The move followed renewed US air strikes on Iran that pushed oil prices higher, stoking inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of further interest rate hikes.
The latest military action came after recent attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and coincided with Washington’s decision to revoke a waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude on global markets.
At the same time, investors were awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting for more clarity on the policy outlook, after the central bank adopted a more hawkish stance at that gathering. Futures markets are now assigning roughly a 50% probability to a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 46% the previous day.
Separately, data published on Tuesday showed that the US trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion in May, its largest level since March 2025.
