Crude oil prices spiked 5% to $74 a barrel after US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over, following new American air strikes in Iran and the revocation of a waiver that had permitted Iranian crude exports. Tensions further escalated after recent projectile attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker.
In response, Tehran claimed responsibility for strikes on 85 US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, alleging American violations of the truce. The renewed hostilities now pose a severe threat to the already fragile US–Iran peace accord and risk disrupting global energy flows by discouraging maritime shippers from transiting this critical chokepoint.
This abrupt bout of volatility represents a stark reversal from earlier market expectations of an imminent supply glut, which had been forecast after OPEC+ approved higher production quotas and Middle Eastern energy producers moved to ramp up output.
