Gasoline futures for delivery in New York Harbor climbed above $3.00 per gallon on Wednesday, the highest level in four weeks, after breaches of the US–Iran ceasefire threatened the resumption of Middle Eastern energy supplies. The United States launched a series of strikes on Iran following IRGC attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington also announced plans to block Iranian energy exports, and President Trump declared that he considered the ceasefire effectively over.
In response, multiple oil and gas tankers reversed course and avoided the Strait, raising the risk of renewed export disruptions from GCC producers just after crude feedstock prices had fallen back to pre-war levels. At the same time, constrained global refining capacity drove crack spreads sharply higher, pushing gasoline futures to more than 50% above their late-February levels. The rally was further amplified by refineries’ shift toward distillate production amid a jet fuel shortage. Additionally, major Chinese refineries re-entered the international energy market after having drawn down crude inventories since the onset of the conflict.
