The IMF has left its 2026 global growth forecast virtually unchanged at 3%, only 0.1 percentage point below its April projection, citing the world economy’s stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and solid AI-related investment, according to its July 2026 World Economic Outlook. The growth outlook for 2027 has been revised up to 3.4% from 3.2%.
Despite these modest upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain skewed to the downside and that the full economic impact of heightened geopolitical tensions — including renewed US–Iran strikes — may take time to emerge. Global headline inflation is now projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026, from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027.
By country, the IMF forecasts US growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. China is expected to expand by 4.6% and 4.1% over the same period. India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.4% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, Japan by 0.6% and 0.7%, the euro area by 0.9% and 1.2%, and the UK by 1.0% and 1.3%.
