Aluminum futures in the UK traded around $3,150, holding most of their rebound from the four‑month low of $3,085 reached earlier in July, amid renewed threats to supply. US President Trump announced he would reinstate a blockade on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz following an exchange of strikes with Iran, undermining expectations that supply from this key region would soon normalize. Before the conflict, exports from GCC countries accounted for about 9% of global aluminum consumption.
At the same time, a surge in natural gas prices driven by shortages in the Middle East has raised operating costs for energy‑intensive aluminum smelters in Europe and Asia. These pressures coincided with China’s 45‑million‑ton production cap becoming increasingly binding this year. As a result, primary aluminum inventories on the LME have fallen by 43% since the start of the year, to 285,000 tonnes. Industry major Macquarie also projected a global aluminum deficit of roughly 930,000 tonnes.
