The New Zealand dollar climbed to around $0.577 on Tuesday, its highest level in four weeks, after comments from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway. Conway cautioned that inflation might not decline as quickly as the central bank anticipates, keeping the door open to further interest rate increases.
Last week, the RBNZ cut its forecast for third-quarter inflation to 3.3% from 4.3%, attributing the revision to lower fuel prices following the interim US–Iran agreement. However, oil prices have rebounded in recent days as renewed conflict in the Middle East has reignited supply concerns.
The RBNZ’s hawkish tone, combined with a run of stronger-than-expected domestic economic data, has led markets to price in two additional rate hikes this year. Still, gains in the kiwi were capped as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, with President Trump reimposing a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and announcing a 20% levy on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, weighing on risk sentiment.
