FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Pulls Back

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 4.55%, retreating from a two-month high of 4.62% reached on July 13th, as softer inflation data pushed back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Both consumer and producer prices came in weaker than anticipated in June, indicating that the decline in wholesale fuel costs has been passed through to the broader economy more strongly than forecast. Fixed-income assets also found support from renewed geopolitical uncertainty after US President Trump alleged that China interfered in the 2020 US presidential election, threatening the fragile truce between the two countries following last year’s reciprocal tariff increases. Even so, upside inflation risks persisted as US–Iranian strikes continued and commercial vessels largely avoided the Strait of Hormuz, diverging from the elevated traffic volumes seen in June. Interest-rate futures indicated that more than two thirds of market participants still expect a Fed rate hike by year-end, although policymakers are widely seen holding rates steady at this month’s meeting.