Platinum futures fell below $1,600 an ounce, nearing late‑November lows, as the ongoing US–Iran conflict heightened the risk of energy-driven inflation and further interest rate increases. The resulting jump in oil prices pushed US Treasury yields higher and led markets to price in roughly a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, pressuring non-yielding assets such as platinum.
On the supply side, Sibanye-Stillwater plans to advance seven PGM mining projects, though production is not expected to start until next year. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a fourth consecutive market deficit in 2026, as constrained mine supply, elevated energy costs, and higher winter electricity tariffs continue to squeeze producers’ margins.
In the longer term, platinum demand is expected to be underpinned by China’s industrial policies supporting AI, electric vehicles, and clean energy, alongside the introduction of the country’s first platinum investment bar series.
