FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield at 2025-Highs

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.68% on Thursday, advancing for a fourth straight session to its highest level since January 2025. The move came as surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates. Markets are now assigning more than a 33% probability to a rate hike next week, while the implied likelihood of an increase in September has climbed above 78%, up from 61% just a day earlier. Hostilities in the Middle East continue to intensify, with no signs of a near-term resolution, pushing oil prices to nearly 31% above their pre-conflict levels from earlier this month. While inflationary pressures have remained relatively contained so far, the latest jump in energy costs has rekindled concerns that higher oil prices could feed through to broader inflation, prompting the Fed to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance.