The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75% at its July 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had broadly expected no change. The move followed an unexpected 100 basis point reduction in June, as annual inflation eased for the ninth consecutive month to 10.3% in June.
Policymakers noted that disinflation continues to be underpinned by tight monetary conditions, a stronger tenge, moderating consumer demand, and government anti-inflation measures. However, they cautioned that recent monthly inflation readings indicate the pace of the slowdown in price growth may be losing momentum.
The central bank also pointed to robust economic activity, with GDP expanding by 4.1% in the first half of 2026, supported by solid growth in construction, manufacturing, transportation, and investment. Despite the latest rate cut, officials stressed that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and reaffirmed that future policy decisions will be guided by incoming data.
