The Australian dollar climbed toward $0.70, returning to near multi-week highs as investors looked ahead to this week’s inflation data for guidance on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path. The second-quarter CPI report, due Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation rising 0.9% for the quarter, lifting the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.5%. Such a result would keep inflation comfortably above the RBA’s 2%–3% target band, bolstering expectations that the central bank will retain a tightening bias.
Money markets are currently pricing around a 40% probability of a rate hike in August from the current 4.35% cash rate, with an increase by November almost fully discounted.
Risk sentiment also improved after a pause in the US–Iran conflict. Oil prices eased and the US dollar weakened following Washington’s decision to suspend its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran, while Tehran indicated it had halted its retaliatory attacks.
Attention is now turning to the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting, where officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
