FX.co ★ India 10Y Yield Rises Ahead of Fed

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec climbed to about 6.79%, ending a three-session losing streak as investors grew cautious ahead of the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting and as rising oil prices dampened sentiment. Markets were assigning a 65% probability to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while fully pricing in a 25-basis-point hike in September, with traders focused on Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance on the future policy path. At the same time, Brent crude advanced 4.7% to around $87.68 per barrel after US and Saudi forces carried out strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq, reigniting worries over the Middle East conflict and its potential inflationary impact. Additional upward pressure on domestic yields came from the 10-year US Treasury yield, which inched up to 4.61%, even as investors continued to expect the Reserve Bank of India to leave its repo rate steady at 5.25% at next week’s policy meeting.