Sugar prices climbed to around 15.1 cents per pound, the highest level in nearly a month, supported by stronger oil prices, renewed uncertainty over weather conditions in India, and forecasts of a global supply deficit for the 2026/27 season.
Although rainfall has improved in India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, concerns persist. The country’s rainfall deficit has narrowed from 42% at the end of June to 12% below the long-term average as of August 3. Even so, traders remain focused on precipitation during the critical June–September crop development window. On July 31, the India Meteorological Department warned that monsoon rainfall in August and September is likely to remain below average.
Expectations for the global sugar balance sheet are also underpinning prices. On August 3, Covrig Analytics revised its 2026/27 outlook from a 100,000-ton surplus projected in June to a 300,000-ton deficit, aligning with recent updates from Green Pool and StoneX, which have likewise increased their global deficit estimates. Meanwhile, the El Niño weather pattern continues to pose an additional risk to global sugar supplies.
