The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slipped to 4.68% on Tuesday, after briefly rising above 4.71% the previous day, as oil prices stabilized amid signs of diplomatic progress toward a potential US–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan indicated that a deal may be possible, which could help ease tensions unsettling global energy markets, though the situation remains highly fragile and uncertain.
Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s closely watched US CPI report, which is expected to offer further clarity on the inflation outlook. The data are anticipated to confirm a cooling in energy-related price pressures that had intensified in the months immediately after the start of the US war with Iran. Interest-rate futures currently imply roughly even odds for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, with markets assigning about a 50% probability that rates will be left unchanged at the next meeting.
