Corn futures held above $4.50 per bushel, hovering near a two-week high as firm demand and tighter supply projections lent support to prices. The USDA raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn export forecast by 75 million bushels to a record 3.4 billion, driven by strong demand from Mexico and other key importers. It also increased the 2026/27 export outlook by 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion, pushing projected ending stocks down to 1.653 billion bushels from a prior estimate of 1.79 billion.
At the same time, the USDA lowered its 2026 corn yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183, undershooting market expectations of 182.4 bushels per acre and reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest. Even so, higher planted area lifted projected production to 16.013 billion bushels, slightly above the previous forecast and reinforcing expectations for the second-largest crop on record.
Looking ahead, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop conditions and bolster yield prospects.
