The U.S. economy showed signs of modest cooling in mid-summer as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell into negative territory in July 2026. The index declined to -0.08 in July from a revised 0.06 in June 2026, according to data updated on 24 August 2026.
The shift from positive to slightly negative suggests that overall economic activity moved from marginally above trend to just below its historical average. While not indicating a sharp downturn, the July reading points to softer momentum across key sectors tracked by the index, including production, employment, personal consumption, and housing.
Market participants and policymakers will be watching upcoming releases closely to determine whether July’s dip represents a temporary pause in growth or the start of a more sustained moderation in U.S. economic activity.
