The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) slipped to -0.08 in July 2026 from 0.06 in June, indicating a modest weakening in overall U.S. economic activity. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that feed into the index declined over the month, and two categories made negative contributions in July.
Production-related indicators contributed 0.01 points to the index, down from 0.04 points in June, while the sales, orders, and inventories category contributed 0.02 points, easing from 0.04 points. Employment-related indicators improved, registering a contribution of -0.01 points compared with -0.05 points in June. In contrast, the personal consumption and housing category deteriorated markedly, subtracting 0.09 points from the index after contributing 0.04 points in June.
The index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, declined to -0.04 in July from +0.01 in June.
