FX.co ★ Nickel Falls Amid Weak Fundamentals

Nickel traded around $16,800 per tonne in late August, extending losses from the previous session as persistent refined-nickel surpluses and subdued Chinese demand continued to pressure prices. LME nickel inventories rose 0.8% in August to 268,314 tonnes, while Chinese stainless-steel futures slipped below CNY 14,000, underscoring ongoing weakness in a key end-use sector. At the same time, the Philippines’ new critical-minerals framework is designed to accelerate mineral exploration, processing, and downstream investment, potentially boosting future nickel supply. In Indonesia, the 2026 nickel ore quota has been set at 260–270 million tonnes, well below the 379 million tonnes approved for 2025, signaling a tighter supply outlook, although the prospect of additional quotas for smelters facing raw-material shortages could cap price gains. Overall, nickel is on track to decline by roughly 2% in August but remains more than 1% higher year to date.