FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since January 2025

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed for a fourth straight session on Monday, reaching 4.75%—its highest level since January 2025. The move came as oil prices rose following the first exchange of strikes between the US and Iran in about a month, stoking inflation worries and prompting traders to increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday further bolstered those expectations, with Warsh stating that the Fed would “have work to do” if policymakers do not gain confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. Warsh has consistently stressed the importance of reducing inflation, even as the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its June and July meetings, leaving some uncertainty around the timing of any policy shift. Futures markets now imply roughly a 64% probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September.