Wheat prices traded around $7.65 per bushel, hovering near their highest level since early February 2023 as tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. The market remains heavily influenced by heightened sensitivity to war-risk premiums and speculative positioning, following sharp price gains driven by ongoing attacks from both countries—together responsible for more than a quarter of global wheat exports—on commercial vessels, which continue to threaten worldwide supply chains.
Adding to the uncertainty, Russia has suspended its floating export duty on wheat through the end of 2026, after its wheat exports in August fell by more than 50% compared with the same month a year earlier. Although Russia can still ship via its Baltic ports, limited capacity there remains a structural constraint. Ukraine’s wheat exports have also dropped sharply, down 34% year-to-date, and the UAC expects further disruptions at Ukrainian ports.
On the diplomatic front, Turkey’s president stressed the need for a mechanism to permanently secure maritime transit, while Russia’s foreign minister said he saw no basis for such an agreement.
