The Brazilian real appreciated to around 5.10 per USD in September, marking a three-week high after the release of the Genial/Quaest poll on the 2026 presidential election. The survey indicated a technical tie in a potential October runoff between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula at 42% of voting intentions and Bolsonaro at 41%.
Markets tend to view Bolsonaro as more fiscally conservative, even as high domestic interest rates and weak business activity continue to cloud Brazil’s economic outlook. Brazil’s GDP grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slightly above expectations, supported mainly by the agricultural sector. However, the underlying details were softer, pointing to a loss of economic momentum despite a tight labor market and short-term demand-boosting measures.
In contrast, industrial production increased 0.2% month-on-month in July, recovering after two consecutive monthly declines.
