The US economy is projected to have added 56,000 jobs in August 2026, representing a modest rebound after an unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs in July. The private sector is expected to contribute 45,000 of those new positions. Local government education employment is forecast to recover, and a pickup is also anticipated in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, these improvements may be partially offset by the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of Haitian immigrants, which has disrupted their work authorization and employment.
The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.1%, close to a one-year low. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% from the previous month and 3.0% from a year earlier, which would represent the slowest annual wage growth since May 2021. Overall, the report is likely to indicate a labor market that is relatively stable but subdued.
