Wheat futures hovered around $7.30 per bushel, holding below the 3½‑year high of $7.67 reached on August 28, as traders weighed ongoing developments in the Russia–Ukraine war against renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Growing hopes for a negotiated settlement have pressured prices, while the latest USDA supply and demand report indicated slightly higher‑than‑expected global ending stocks, prompting profit-taking among investors with sizable long positions.
At the same time, the USDA cut its 2026/27 export projections for both Russia and Ukraine, lowering Russia’s forecast by 3 million metric tons to 43 million tons and Ukraine’s by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Mounting attacks on shipping lanes have intensified supply concerns. Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 61.9% year-on-year to 2 million tons in August, and shipments via Azov and Black Sea ports plunged 73.1% to 1.3 million tons, underscoring the growing disruption in the region.
