The dollar index climbed for a fourth straight session on Monday, reaching 99.6—its highest level in roughly two weeks—as markets positioned ahead of this week’s FOMC decision. Futures pricing implies nearly an 89% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would be its first interest rate increase since 2023. Policymakers are also set to publish updated economic projections, and investors will be watching closely for any signals on the likely trajectory of future rate moves.
At the same time, rising oil prices have intensified inflationary pressures, darkening the inflation outlook and bolstering the case for additional Fed tightening. Sentiment in equity markets has also been hit by warnings from top technology CEOs about the potential risks associated with artificial intelligence, prompting a shift into safe-haven assets and lifting demand for the dollar. The greenback advanced broadly, with its strongest gains recorded against the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar.
