South Africa’s FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index improved to -13 in Q3 2026, from -19 in Q2, when confidence hit its lowest level since Q1 2025. The latest survey indicates that the recovery was driven mainly by stronger confidence among lower-income households, which have been less affected by recent interest rate hikes and have benefited from easing food price inflation. In contrast, confidence among high-income consumers – who account for a large share of total spending – remains deeply negative.
Against this backdrop, ongoing uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East and the risk of further interest rate increases are expected to keep overall consumer spending under pressure in the coming months. “Shoppers will likely remain cost-conscious and prioritise essentials over discretionary purchases in the run-up to the festive season, implying that consumer spending growth will stay subdued and that value-focused retailers may outperform higher-end brands,” FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said.
