The US Leading Index turned negative in August 2026, signaling a potential cooling in the economic outlook. According to data updated on 18 September 2026, the index fell to -0.1% month-over-month, down from a 0.2% increase recorded in July 2026.
On a month-over-month basis, the latest reading shows that forward-looking economic indicators have weakened compared with the prior month’s modest gain. While the July figure had suggested continued, if moderate, economic momentum, August’s dip below zero points to rising headwinds and a more cautious outlook for the months ahead.
The month-over-month comparison framework means August’s -0.1% reflects how conditions evolved from July, while the July 0.2% reading itself represented a comparison with June. Together, the shift from positive to slightly negative territory underscores a tentative turning point in the trajectory of leading economic signals for the United States.
