The U.S. economy showed signs of moderating momentum in late summer, as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dipped into negative territory in August 2026. The index fell to -0.04 in August from a positive 0.08 reading in July 2026, signaling a slight move below trend growth. The latest data were updated on 21 September 2026.
The CFNAI is a composite measure designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure, with zero indicating trend growth. While the shift from 0.08 to -0.04 suggests a softening in activity between July and August, the reading close to zero points to only a modest loss of momentum rather than a sharp downturn.
Investors and policymakers are likely to watch subsequent releases closely to determine whether August’s negative reading marks the beginning of a more pronounced slowdown or a temporary pause following earlier strength in the economy.
