The Ibovespa jumped 7.7% on Monday to a record 206,912 points, marking its biggest single-day advance in more than six years, after Flávio Bolsonaro outpaced President Lula in the first round of the elections, defying most polling forecasts. The outcome sparked a sharp repricing of Brazilian assets.
Bolsonaro secured 47.03% of valid votes, versus 45.16% for President Lula. Markets view the senator as more fiscally conservative, a stance that resonates amid elevated domestic interest rates and subdued business activity. Bolsonaro’s performance exceeded the average of polls tracked by Goldman Sachs by more than four percentage points.
Gains were broad-based, with financials driving the rally. Itaú climbed 10.4%, Bradesco advanced 13.6%, Banco do Brasil rose 11%, and B3 surged 22.6%. Other notable winners included Sabesp, up 11.6%, and Petrobras, up 8.2%. In response to the new backdrop, JPMorgan upgraded Brazil to “Buy,” and banks now expect the benchmark index to extend its record-setting run in the coming sessions.
The Ibovespa also hit a record for trading activity, with more than 5 million transactions executed during the session.
