The New Zealand dollar hovered near $0.560, its weakest level since November 2025, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback traded close to an 18‑month high, supported by hawkish FOMC minutes and elevated US Treasury yields. Sentiment toward the kiwi was further undermined by concerns over New Zealand’s fragile economic recovery amid high fuel costs, persistent geopolitical risks, and ongoing domestic political uncertainty.
Interest rate markets are currently assigning roughly a 58% probability that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% later this month, with a further increase in December now more than fully priced in. Meanwhile, the RBNZ has begun recruiting for two assistant governor positions and its first‑ever chief of staff, ahead of Assistant Governor Karen Silk’s planned departure in mid‑December.
