The Ibovespa climbed about 1% to approach 208,000 points on Friday, after the release of the first polls for the presidential runoff. A Datafolha survey showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of voting intentions versus 45% for President Lula, a technical tie at the upper limit of the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll, however, put Flávio ahead with 51.1% against 45.7% for Lula, breaking the statistical deadlock seen in the previous runoff survey.
Markets tend to view Bolsonaro as more fiscally conservative, a stance seen as supportive in a context of elevated domestic interest rates and subdued business activity. His economic team is reportedly weighing spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Financial stocks posted robust gains, with Banco do Brasil up nearly 2%, Bradesco and Itaú advancing more than 1%, and B3 adding around 2.5%. Utilities also moved higher, with Axia gaining more than 1% and Sabesp rising about 2%. Vale inched up as iron ore prices steadied after hitting multi-month lows amid shrinking steel margins.
