European natural gas prices slipped back below €81/MWh on Monday, after briefly touching a four-week high earlier in the session. Prices initially climbed as a surge in tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and rising regional tensions intensified worries over the security of LNG shipments. Before the war, roughly 20% of global LNG trade passed through the strait.
In Europe, gas inventories have been edging higher in recent weeks, with storage sites now about 73% full—still below the levels seen at this time last year. This improvement remains fragile, however, as forecasts for a cooler-than-normal autumn could bring an earlier start to the heating season and drive up gas demand.
European gas network operators said last week that the system retains sufficient flexibility to cover winter consumption but cautioned that tight supply conditions could leave storage levels below 30% by the end of the season, heightening the risk from any late-winter cold spell.
In parallel, President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, offering some relief to broader energy markets by easing concerns over potential supply disruptions.
