The Australian dollar fell below $0.70, hovering near multi-month lows as investors digested the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September meeting. The central bank noted that several previously identified upside risks to inflation had either materialized or were emerging, and reiterated that further increases in the cash rate remained possible if warranted.
Markets are now focused on the RBA’s November meeting, where a fifth rate hike this year is seen as a live option, contingent on third-quarter inflation data showing persistent price pressures. The RBA flagged rising global costs, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and oil prices exceeding the assumptions in its August forecasts as key sources of inflation risk.
Investors are also awaiting Thursday’s September employment report and the Q3 CPI data due later this month for clearer signals on the RBA’s policy path. At the same time, the US dollar strengthened to an 18‑month high, as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
