Soybean futures slipped below $12.80 per bushel, hitting a six-week low as expectations of a record-large U.S. crop and brisk harvest activity pressured prices. The USDA lifted its 2026 soybean production forecast to 4.562 billion bushels from 4.535 billion in September, topping market expectations of 4.534 billion bushels, and raised its average yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8.
Predominantly dry weather across the Midwest is enabling farmers to speed up harvesting, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress report due on Tuesday. At the same time, Brazil’s soybean planting is progressing at a record pace, supported by favorable rainfall that is aiding fieldwork.
Traders are now watching for signs of Chinese demand following recent talks between Trump and Xi Jinping, though punitive Chinese tariffs remain a deterrent for private buyers. China has cut its 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes but left its import projection unchanged at 95.5 million tonnes, still well below the USDA’s estimate of 115 million tonnes.
