The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from its July projection. The upgrade is driven primarily by strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI), though it is partially offset by higher oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. The latest World Economic Outlook, released as global economic and financial leaders convene in Bangkok for the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, places the 2026 forecast roughly in line with the most optimistic scenario presented in April, but still below the projected global growth rate of 3.5% for 2025.
Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s new chief economist, warned that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could add further upward pressure on inflation and dampen growth. She also noted that a deterioration in fiscal positions, a reassessment of AI-related profitability, and increasing extreme weather events could all weigh further on the outlook.
In its country forecasts, the IMF left its 2026 US GDP growth projection unchanged at 2.3%. It trimmed its 2026 China GDP growth forecast slightly to 4.5% from 4.6%, while raising its Japan GDP growth projection to 0.7% from 0.6%.
