The IMF has raised its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%, with output projected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2027, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook. The upgrade reflects resilient activity in advanced economies and stronger investment in artificial intelligence, although global growth is still expected to slow from 3.5% in 2025. Elevated energy prices stemming from the US–Iran war pose a major downside risk, particularly for low-income countries and net energy importers.
US GDP is forecast to expand by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. In contrast, China’s growth is projected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, largely on the back of subdued domestic demand. Japan’s economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in each of the two years, while India is projected to post robust annual growth of 7.0% over the same period.
In the euro area, growth is set to ease to 1.1% this year before edging up to 1.2% in 2027, as high energy costs and weak consumer confidence continue to weigh on activity. For the UK, the IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%, but trimmed the 2027 projection to 1.2%.
