The Australian dollar climbed to around US$0.70, its highest level in more than two weeks, supported by hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and broad weakness in the US dollar. Minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting underscored ongoing cost-of-living pressures and the risk of further price rises, keeping the option of additional rate hikes on the table. Markets are currently pricing in about a 28% probability of another increase at the 3 November meeting and roughly 50% odds of a move in December.
Attention now shifts to Thursday’s employment data, with the economy expected to add 20,000 jobs, down from 39,500 in August, while the jobless rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.6%. Third-quarter CPI figures, due later this month, will also be closely watched, as core inflation is still seen running above the RBA’s 2%–3% target band.
At the same time, the Australian dollar received additional support from a softer US dollar after the Federal Reserve signaled only one more rate hike this year and no further tightening in 2027.
