FX.co ★ US Inflation Set to Accelerate on Rising Energy Prices

The US annual inflation rate is projected to rise to 3.6% in September 2026, up from 3.4% in each of the previous two months, largely due to higher energy costs. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to increase by 0.6%, the strongest gain in five months, driven by an anticipated jump of more than 7% in gasoline prices and a modest uptick in food prices. At the same time, annual core inflation is seen edging up to 2.5% from 2.4%, while monthly core CPI inflation is forecast to ease to 0.2% from 0.3%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain relatively contained. Airline fares likely continued to rise on the back of higher jet fuel prices, and rents are expected to record moderate increases. In contrast, goods prices probably rose only slightly as the effects of tariffs gradually diminished.