Nickel prices fell below $15,300 per tonne, their lowest level since December 2025, as mounting concerns over a global surplus continued to pressure the market. The International Nickel Study Group revised its 2026 forecast from a 32,000-tonne deficit to a 19,000-tonne surplus and now expects the surplus to widen further to 70,000 tonnes in 2027.
At the same time, Indonesian imports of nickel ore from the Philippines surged 65.75% year-on-year to 13.52 million tonnes in January–August 2026. This additional supply has helped Indonesian smelters secure feedstock and soften the impact of production restrictions.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s nickel smelter association expects domestic nickel product output to decline by 3.5%–4% this year, citing shortages of raw materials, higher ore prices, drought-related water constraints, and the diversion of power from some smelters to aluminum production.
