The Ibovespa climbed 1.6% on Tuesday to close at 208,296 points, driven by a new electoral poll and a supportive external backdrop. A Real Time Big Data survey released on Monday showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Lula in a potential runoff, with 52% of valid votes versus 48%. Although Bolsonaro has not yet detailed his policy agenda, markets interpret his candidacy as more conducive to fiscal reforms, including spending cuts, which could help ease interest rates.
At the same time, lower oil prices provided relief to credit-sensitive sectors previously pressured by energy-driven inflation. Major banks advanced, with Itaú and Bradesco each gaining about 2.9%. Among other financial names, B3 surged 5.4%. Utilities also traded higher, with Axia up 0.9%, while retailers posted strong gains led by Magazine Luiza, which jumped 14.8%. Moving in the opposite direction, Vale fell 1.4%, tracking a decline in Chinese iron ore prices.
