FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds at One-Month Low

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.97% on Friday, after dropping more than 10 basis points in the previous session to its lowest level in a month. The pullback followed a sharp selloff in technology and artificial intelligence stocks, which pushed investors toward safer assets such as government bonds. Rising doubts about the sustainability of AI-related investments—one of the key engines of recent US economic growth—also led markets to scale back expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. Futures now imply about a 91% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, and roughly an 80% chance that rates will remain on hold in December as well. At the same time, mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including reports that the US and Israel are preparing potential renewed strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, further bolstered demand for safe-haven assets.