The Ibovespa hovered around the 204,000 level on Friday, in the final trading session before Brazil’s presidential runoff. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula tied with 50% each of valid votes. Previous surveys had already pointed to a statistical dead heat, with Bolsonaro’s earlier advantage continuing to narrow.
In the market, part of the investor community views a potential Flávio Bolsonaro administration as more inclined to contain public spending, even though neither the candidate nor his economic team has presented detailed fiscal consolidation plans so far.
Financial stocks mostly traded lower. Itaú slipped slightly, while Banco do Brasil and Itaúsa each declined more than 0.5%. Bradesco dropped nearly 2.5%, despite posting third-quarter results broadly in line with expectations and announcing a share buyback program.
In contrast, Petrobras advanced almost 2%, supported by higher oil prices after new attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen against Saudi Arabia. Vale gained close to 1%, tracking a rebound in iron ore prices.
