FX.co ★ US PCE Inflation Expected to Accelerate

The US PCE price index is forecast to rise 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026, the largest increase in six months, after a 0.3% gain in August. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to climb 0.3%, its biggest advance in four months following a 0.2% increase. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is projected to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.4% in each of the previous two months, while the core rate is seen edging up to 3.1% from 3.0%. The personal consumption expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge and has remained above its 2% target since 2021.