FX.co ★ Rupee Extends Gains to Two-Week High

The Indian rupee strengthened to around 94.5 per dollar, reaching a two-week high as a sharp drop in crude oil prices eased concerns over India’s import bill and external balance. Brent crude fell below $100 on expectations that the outcome of the US midterm elections could increase pressure for a negotiated resolution to the Iran conflict, potentially reducing supply-disruption risks and dampening dollar demand from oil-importing countries. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India’s measures— including a special foreign exchange window for state-owned oil refiners and its FCNR(B) deposit scheme— have helped curb spot-market dollar demand and attract foreign currency inflows. Even so, persistent foreign portfolio outflows and tighter global financial conditions continue to weigh on the rupee. In addition, declining foreign exchange reserves and rising forward dollar liabilities underscore the limits of sustained intervention in addressing India’s underlying external vulnerabilities.