US natural gas prices rose above $2.98/MMBtu on Thursday, marking a third straight session of gains after EIA data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in inventories. Gas storage grew by 77 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended October 30, below market expectations for an 81 Bcf build, bringing total inventories to 3.801 trillion cubic feet. Stocks are now 2.8% lower than a year ago but remain 1.4% above the five-year average.
At the same time, domestic output has softened. Production in the Lower 48 states has averaged 111.2 Bcf per day so far in November, down from 113.4 Bcf per day in October. Warmer-than-normal weather is expected to persist through November 20, curbing heating demand and potentially tempering further price gains.
Average natural gas flows to major US LNG export facilities have edged down to 18.2 Bcf per day from 18.4 Bcf per day in October. Even so, international demand for US LNG remains robust, supported by ongoing supply disruptions stemming from the war in Ukraine and heightened geopolitical risks related to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
