European natural gas prices have fallen to around €82/MWh, their lowest level since October 9, extending the previous week’s 17.7% decline amid rising hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East. President Donald Trump indicated it is highly unlikely he will authorize large-scale strikes on the Islamic Republic, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that negotiations may not yield swift progress.
Despite the recent pullback, prices remain significantly above pre-war levels. Disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG exports—previously accounting for roughly one-fifth of global supply—have left Europe facing a tight market as winter approaches. EU gas storage has fallen below 73%, well under the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while inventories in Germany are below 60%.
Colder weather, coupled with weaker wind and solar output, has accelerated storage withdrawals, and Norwegian pipeline flows remain constrained by ongoing outages. At the same time, competition for LNG cargoes is expected to intensify as Asian buyers step up spot market purchases.
